Recently in China Takes Over the World Category

China Takes Over the World p.15

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Happy 60th Birthday China.  

When I watched the news clip with the massive number of people and choreography, I was a bit worried.  

China's taking over of the world is a foregone conclusion.  I can't say I'm not apprehensive about this, but they've decidedly earned it.  

China Lied to Us, p.14

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On Page 4 of China Takes Over the World, I commented on China's increasing investment in gold.  China tried to smooth talk the plankton investors (term borrowed from B. Gross) by saying they'll keep on buying US dollars/debt .  Its just that China will be buying more gold.  

Now the head of China's economic department of policy research is expressing their preference for dumping the US dollars for gold.  (CNBC).  What some head of some department say does not always mean it is the official policy, but it's a clear indication of the direction China can take.  

I didn't fall for the lies and I hope you didn't too.  It was just denial that investors in USD wanted to hear.  China was cheating and lying to USD investors, and some people just wanted to believe their lies.

The USD to EUR graph is from April 25th when I said, "For the gamblers, USD is not very attractive" to today.  

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China: Healthier People, Healthier Economy, p.13

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Beijing has unveiled an ambitious plan to upgrade the healthcare system by 2020 (BusinessWeek):

..."What we're seeing with the new plan is a move back to a more socialist approach to medicine by providing for the majority," said Pollard.

If successful, the sick will not be the only beneficiaries: the economy as a whole could undergo a fundamental change, and several business sectors--drug companies, medical equipment manufacturers and insurance companies--will all be affected....

The other main problem with the healthcare delivery system is that it is not always working in the interest of patients. Government funding for hospitals has gradually diminished, while at the same time the state imposes price control on many services. The result is that hospitals often over-prescribe drugs, or sell expensive patented drugs with a high mark-up. The hospital benefits financially from this because not only do they prescribe the drugs, they dispense them too. Hospitals in China make around 60% of their revenues from prescribing drugs, compared to the 10% to 20% that is typical in Western countries. In the draft guidelines, released last year, there were plans to separate the prescribing and dispensing of drugs. But in the final document these were only introduced as a pilot plan, suggesting that the government has decided not to tackle the hospital inefficiencies head on, but indirectly through improvements in the financing of treatment....

Seems like every country has the same problem.

China Takes Over the World, p.12

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Slightly dated, but Southpark proves to be a beacon of satirical reasoning.  

No, no, leave us alone....They're gonna take over the world.  There's too many of them.  No, no...Their economy is gonna get better with their advances in technology and they're gonna bring down America. (Cries, Cries)

China Takes Over the World, p.11

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The Gao Kao is the Chinese equivalent of the American SATs.  The pressure is intense, because it determines what colleges students will be accepted.  According to NYT, Chinese students study up to 14 to 16 hours a day and take one day off out out of three weeks. 

How can any nation compete against a nation of Type A gunners that China is cranking out?

Drawing from my law school experience, you can't compete against a bunch of gunners unless you are one yourself.  You can't win a race against people who are running full speed, when you are learning how to crawl.

The amount of studying is like a prisoner's dilemma.  Students would be better off, if they all studied very little (bottom right quadrant).  Because there are rewards from intense studying when other students are slacking, all default to intense studying.  All students will resort to harmful Type A studying, and will be worse for wear (top left quadrant).  


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The Chinese Are Frustrated With the Americans, p.10

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These are the Chinese characters for domination.  China is dominating the United States.  

 In further proof that China is taking over the world, Tim Geithner has to appease the Chinese by promising to be fiscally responsible.  

China owns approximately 10% of outstanding US public debt and they need the Chinese to continually buy more debt or at least not dump their current debt for the United States to climb out of this recession.  Good luck with that, Tim.

Since China has been relatively insulated from this financial crises, I wouldn't be surprised if China comes out of this hole earlier.  

GXC has increased about 24% from the time I mentioned it on April 22.

Exactly How Much? p.9

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Just found out about this useful treasury site that reports how much foreign countries own US Treasuries.  

  1. China, 767.9B
  2. Japan, 686.7B
  3. Carib Banks, 213.6B
  4. Oil Exporters, 192B
  5. Russia, 138.4B
  6. UK, 128.2B

The $2.2 trillion on the bottom of the US Treasury site is somewhat confusing, because the sum of all the countries exceed the reported period.  Anyway, the US outstanding debts held in public debt is about $6 trillion.  That means China owns at least 10% of all that excessive spending.  

It's fair to say China is the United States' credit company and lately, they're out to collect their debts.

China's Art Industry is Red Hot p.8

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The definition of development is very multi-dimensional.  There are many competing standards such as literacy, GDP per capita, PPP, infant mortality, Gini co-efficient, etc. etc.  Too many measurements if you ask me.

One standard that is often overlooked and difficult to measure is the arts.  You know a country is developed when it can waste it's brains and people on the arts.  The luxury arts don't contribute much to the growth of a nation, but it's an intellectual outlet that all developed nations seem to have.

China has experienced an explosion in the arts along with its growth.  Check the link for more artwork.  Chinese artists see the world in different lenses and for that reason they're able to provide fresh new artwork to unexposed western cultures.


China Takes Over the World p.7

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Some white people just don't get it.  They just don't know why China's GDP grows at multiples faster than the United States.  Here's a recent explanation that I just read:

Now that the US market is settling comfortably into a statist torpor, it is time to call attention to the fact that America faces challenges of an entirely different kind than it ever has in the past. This generation of Americans simply doesn't know what's going to hit it.

Wealth comes from sweat and smarts. Here's a factoid for you: China has 60 million elementary and secondary school students studying piano or orchestral instruments and playing classical music. America has 30 million students, total. China has classical music students at twice the number of all American students waiting in the pipeline to join the job market. Add to these the smart Indian kids who will be graduating from India's technical institutes with the world's sharpest math skills, and it seems likely that during the next five or ten years, a good 75% of the best-qualified job market entrants will come from China and India.

I cite the classical music students in order to emphasize that we are not talking about robotic nerds who know how to crunch numbers but have no creative ability. A "Spengler" essay from last December provides some detail. Anyone who has not been hiring young Asians has no clue how cultured and curious they are. Their American counterparts have seen life as a perpetual spring break interrupted by brief episodes of work, and are simply in no shape to compete.

In past years, to be sure, the smartest Asians came to America. That's where the capital markets were. A rich Chinese wouldn't lend money to a poor Chinese, unless the poor Chinese first moved to America. Our financial system was the glory of the world. That was then. If you are a smart Chinese or Indian entrepreneur, are you likely to get richer by moving to the US or by staying at home? Emerging market equities are a far more interesting proposition than the US stock market under Emperor Obama I. Bonus restrictions? Compensation caps? They never heard of them in Mumbai or Shanghai.

America isn't getting the immigrants any more, that is, the top-of-the-line human capital. As China reorients its economy towards domestic spending, America won't get the capital, either. America isn't going to crash. Unless it changes course, it will slowly sink into the mud, like England did during the 20th century.


This white guy just doesn't get it.  What does having 60 million classical musicians versus 30 million matter?  If he made the point that China is 4x the size of the United States and only wastes 2x of its population on musicians, then it would have made sense.

His explanation about culture being the sole or main factor is bullshit.  Using culture as the big reason is not that far away from racism.  Culture matters in the development of a country, but I'd argue the availability of a free educational system, natural resources, and political policy matter more than some stereotype of the hardworking Asian culture.

For him to make a weak "brain drain" argument is just another example of him not getting it.  There have been brain drain from Asian countries, but there are many Asian immigrants who are not part of the brain drain.  The refugees and immigrants from the Vietnam war would never be classified at the top of the educational elites.  For most, the only education they ever received was to not wander into the forest at night time.  Many never went to school or saw a floor that wasn't made of dirt.  Despite their lack of resources, some have experienced upward mobility in the United States inconsistent with their statistics.  

You make anybody hungry enough and they'll work as hard as they can to succeed.  This motivation isn't restricted to any one race or culture.

China Takes Over the World p.6

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The current yuan is not suppose to be exportable and is kept at artificially low levels.  It was previously pegged only to the American Dollar, but now it's pegged to a basket of international currency.

If China does a full on internalization of it's currency, the Economist in me predicts the yuan will rocket.  Kind of obvious, but kind of not.  It's currently kept at an artificially lower level than market.  The yuan would become stronger against the USD and EUR.  

This would mean that China's exports will decline.  Their exports are already declining, but it will get worse.  It's one of those push pull things, because declining exports would mean their GDP should shrink from the more expensive yuan (remember Net Exports is a factor in the GDP equation).  Countries like the US will find it harder to buy from China, so they won't buy as much.  

However, the more valuable yuan means China can compete at the international level by scooping up more raw materials and resources which aids in their business investments.  Definitely, a lot of push and pull going on that would require more Greek letters to explain.

The Investor in me says this translates well into investing in Chinese companies.  Not only is China's growth positive as shown by their ISM equivalent numbers, it's possible that stocks of Chinese companies will go up just because of the more valuable yuan versus the USD.  The Chinese companies would have this margin of safety from USD YUAN conversion.

China takes over the world p.5

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If anybody followed my advice on China on April 22, 2009 (GXC or FXI) they would have received a 10% return on their money.  That was a lucky guess.

What's not a lucky guess is my economic forecast that the Chinese economy will recover more quickly than the US economy.  

The official manufacturing index for China indicates two months of positive growth.  A reading above 50 indicates a positively growing China.

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In contrast the US ISM numbers show a negative decline in the economy, although not as bad as previous months.  Meaning the US went from worst to not as bad.  At the same time, China is positively growing.

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China Takes Over the World p.4

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gold-bars-2.jpgChina has been hoarding gold lately.  China claims that it has been holding on to just as many US Dollars.  It's just holding on to more gold.  Don't believe it!

People don't generally increase one portion of their portfolio without decreasing another portion.  There's a push and pull going on.  If China is increasing it's holdings of gold, it will likely decrease it's holdings in other areas like US Dollars/Bonds.

China's exact holdings of US currency and bonds are unclear, but some economists are thinking they might hold 10 to 30% of all US savings bonds.  

If China really does hold that much in US assets, it will dump US dollars to buy gold.

For the gamblers, USD is not very attractive.  The counter-party might say a recovering US economy will be good for the US dollar  That's true and something the forex traders will have to adjust for.

Continued from China Takes Over the World p.2.  Consider going long in something like GXC of FXI.

China Takes Over the World p.3

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Further proof that China is taking over the world.  China is generally in the Top 3 of wealthiest countries by GDP.

If you were to ask most people what the three wealthiest countries in the world are, I'll wager most people would say the United States, United Kingdom, and maybe Japan/Canada.  China would not make the list in most people's minds.  The general public knows a lot and knows very little.  

China takes over the world p.2

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Goldman (yes, the same Goldman that is gambling with your money) is predicting China to grow blazing hot in 2009 and 2010.  Goldman is probably jamming as much money as they can into the Shanghai Stock Exchange.  

China has been sitting on a cushion of cash from exporting all of those goods to the United States.  Every Chinese made product that Americans buy at Wal-Mart directly fuels the wealth and growth of China.  

Pundits like to use the often heard statement that when "America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold."  The Great Recession slammed China just as hard as it slammed the United States.  The oft heard statement might have been true for the past 60 years, but it no longer applies.  

The economist predicts that the Chinese economy will recover faster from the Great Recession than the United States.  China's huge cushion of cash and its willingness to use this cash for fiscal stimulus softens their suffering.  They're not using the cash for just basic needs, but they're also using it to create new industries like automobiles, technology, and medicine.  In contrast, the United States has to borrow it's way out of this paper bag.  This will cost the United States in terms of future restrictions.  

It makes sense simplistically.  If we had two neighbors and one had a large savings account and the other only had credit, who would likely take care of their bills and have greater financial stability?  This is a very gross simplification, but all-else-equal, it's better to have a savings account than none.

China's taking over of the economic world does not have to be a foregone conclusion.  If the United States fixed its policies on education, taxes, limited liability, and maybe healthcare, then the US will remain the forefront of economic prosperity.  That's unlikely to happen.

The investor says to invest in China through a broad based indexed ETF like GXC or FXI.  

The gambler reminds us not to wager all of our money on one hand of China.

Why China will take over the world

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At it's slowest growth in the past decade, China's economy still grew at 6.1% in the first quarter from the year earlier while the United States is still bleeding.  (Bloomberg)

It's been said before again and again.  Argentina will surpass the US economically.  Germany will surpass the US economically.  Japan will surpass the US economically.  All three predictions were wrong.

Now it's China's turn.  Prognosticators have been thrice bitten and it's foolish of me to make such a prediction, but China will surpass the US as the most wealthy nation.  Not just in terms of overall GDP but probably in terms of wealth per person too.  

The productivity of labor in China has been rapidly catching up in manufacturing.  Most goods are produced in China.  Obviously.  But they're at a point where they're transitioning to high end industries.  They're even experimenting with industries like medical science and automotive. 

Much like the way Japan used to be mocked for inferior quality, China is going to reach this same Japan's current high quality level as long as they re-invest in themselves.