Our favorite card counter, B. Gross has released his monthly newsletter. This month was a particularly well written month. There's even a somewhat humorous anecdotal golf story included.
Again, nobody should be relying on forecasts in the distant future. 10 or 20 years are too many years. You have to respect B, though. Putting his street cred on the line to make these type of impossible guesses and even writing a book about it once. Maybe he follows one of the trader's axioms. He doesn't care about being right. He only cares about making money.
I'm not even 100% sure he uses his long term forecasts in his bond trades. I'd stabbed that he does something along the lines of bond arbitrage and global macro trades.
One particular paragraph stood out to me in this month's newsletter:
Global economic leadership. It's premature to award the 21st century to the Chinese as opposed to the United States, but if the last six months have been any example, China is sort of lookin' like Muhammad Ali standing over Sonny Liston in 1964 yelling, "Get up, you big ugly bear!" Not only has China spent three times the amount of money (relative to GDP) to revive its economy, but it has managed to grow at a "near normal" 8% pace vs. our "big R" recessionary numbers. Its equity market, while volatile and lightly regulated, has almost doubled in twelve months, making ours look like that ugly bear instead of a raging bull.
Bet on Red.
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