"Card counting is not illegal. It's just frowned upon. Like masturbating on an airplane." -- AlanJuly 2009 Archives
"Card counting is not illegal. It's just frowned upon. Like masturbating on an airplane." -- Alan
PIMCO's Bill Gross is criticizing the high fees in actively managed bond funds and their lack of ability to beat market returns. (Reuters)
Nothing new or insightful, but nice to see B speaking out against it. I wonder if he has an ulterior motive for making such a comment...
I've been trying to find a copy of this 1980's PBS documentary on Paul Tudor Jones. The only places that had it were bootlegged copies charging hundreds. Bear in mind this was shown on PBS for free back in the 80's.
The hour long documentary follows the daily grind, mindset, and attitude of the legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones. FYI, Paul Tudor Jones and Edward Thorp (the father of card counting) were in a few investment deals together and it's fair to say they've collaborated on a few trading strategies.
After watching the tape, I (1) have a man crush on PTJ and (2) feel better about gambling with my life.
Update: It's been taken down. If you missed it, it was a great video. Look for it to spread at the torrent sites and other places.
I know I'm back prematurely from my Bar studies, but I couldn't help but post this PokerGrapher chart from 2007 to 2008. I found this chart on my computer from my brief foray in No Limit Hold'em. I have read a lot of poker books and I enjoy them for their game theories and strategies.
The 2,807 hands above are from two years at Pokerstars, NL(.25/.50) and NL(.50/1.00). Actually, make that three years, because I haven't played a single cash hand in 2009. It took me 3 years to play the same number of hands that multi-tablers crank out in one day.
I pulled in about 5BB (big blinds) per 100 hands. You ask most poker players what would be a good win record and they would say 1 to 3 BB is good, 3 to 5 BB is very good, and anything over 5BB is awesome and probably unsustainable.
My 5BB/100 is a bit misleading, because this is a very small sample size. It's just as likely that I'm playing a losing game or a considerably better game. Even though there is "noise", the results are the best guess of my win rate.
Once you start looking into dollar figures, you start to realize why I never capitalized on any slight propensity towards No Limit Hold'em. 5 big blinds at my level translates to about $2.50 to $5.00 per 100 hands played. Most full tables go through maybe 70 hands an hour, so I'm actually making less than $2.50-$5.00 an hour. I suppose I could play multiple-tables to make more, but I never did get comfortable with that.
In econ speak, there's a fifty cent word called opportunity cost. Opportunity cost just means the value of your time that you could be doing something else. I can't and won't disclose my plays, but I don't even get out of bed unless it's at least $50 an hour. To forgo $50, in order to make $3.50 just doesn't make much sense.
Don't get me wrong. I enjoy going to the movies or grabbing a drink with a friend, but that's leisure stuff in which I derive non-pecuniary satisfaction. When it comes to business and making the cash, it's all about the cold hard cash.
In order for me to get my poker win rate up to $50 an hour, I would have to spend thousands of hours practicing. That would take years. All of the old hands and young guns that we see on TV have done their time. Even the youngest players have spent thousands of hours on play games or home games by the time they reach the legal age. Or the guys that were chess players or backgammon players, they've already acquired thousands of hours in game theory from their respective fields. Many of those hours transfer over to poker. Don't be fooled by the seeming ease in which experts play their game. Rarity, or should I say impossibility, is the person that achieves mastery in any subject without extensive practice.
In the coming months I will be forever free from any obligations and I will have to make the difficult decision of whether or not I want to muck through the poker learning curve or to rely on my old tricks.
We'll find out together.
Those who do not know much about gambling may disagree but there are many references in these games which relates to how we live our lives and make our decisions.
We may play the game correctly, with all the math backing us up but can still lose once the river card is exposed. Just as in life, you may do everything correctly and still lose an investment. But what matters is your long-term outlook and ensuring safe-guards such as sustaining a large enough bankroll to endure this short-term loss. This is an important rule I learned when Philip first introduced me to this world. Never put all your eggs in the same basket.
I won my first poker tournament the other day. However, my small victory does little for my record as I have only played a handful of tournaments so far. I can appreciate these small wins, but even then, there are areas where I could tighten up. I can also say that I am getting better at recognizing weakness in my opponents and am more bold in applying the pressure when it is needed. Aggression is an important key to fast pace tournaments.
As I read more into Arnold Snyder's book: Poker Tournament Formula, the more I recommend any novice poker player interested in winning these tournaments to get a copy and read it.
We may play the game correctly, with all the math backing us up but can still lose once the river card is exposed. Just as in life, you may do everything correctly and still lose an investment. But what matters is your long-term outlook and ensuring safe-guards such as sustaining a large enough bankroll to endure this short-term loss. This is an important rule I learned when Philip first introduced me to this world. Never put all your eggs in the same basket.
I won my first poker tournament the other day. However, my small victory does little for my record as I have only played a handful of tournaments so far. I can appreciate these small wins, but even then, there are areas where I could tighten up. I can also say that I am getting better at recognizing weakness in my opponents and am more bold in applying the pressure when it is needed. Aggression is an important key to fast pace tournaments.
As I read more into Arnold Snyder's book: Poker Tournament Formula, the more I recommend any novice poker player interested in winning these tournaments to get a copy and read it.
Congressman Barney Frank, [D-MA4] is gaining support for his HR2267.pdf bill which will overturn current gambling restrictions imposed on U.S. players by the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act. This bill introduces new policies that would allow the United States to generate up to $52B in tax revenue over the next decade according to the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCooper (pricewater2008.pdf). The congressman continues to gain additional support from house representatives (increased to 23 co-sponsors as of May 21st)
In the advent of today's economy, the incentive$ to pass this bill are difficult to completely ignore.
on another note:
What would the government do with an extra $52B? Spend it on the Department of Defense of course! A new website detailing government spending on information technology investments and allow users to track the history/progress of these investments.
Check it out! http://it.usaspending.gov/
Philip's hiatus from this website gives me the opportunity to introduce myself to his 5 (minus 1) readers.
As Philip has alluded to in his previous post, I am in the field of School Psychology.
My interests are (in no particular order and not limited to): poker, neuropsychology, school psychology, making money, and reading the news.
I look forward to keeping you informed as well as entertained on issues that are of interest to me while maintaining the focus on investor, gambler, and economist ideals.
