The general public just doesn't realize that even if you have an edge in gambling or investing, you can still lose. It's so counter-intuitive and jarring for so many people that if they had the same exact recipe as any other legitimately successful money manager, they couldn't do it. They can't replicate the success of these earners, because they can't handle the losing it takes to win.
Forgive me if I can't reveal any specifics like the location, amount wagered, or what type of game that I played. Not too long ago, I was playing a game with a 20% edge. This 20% edge isn't some made up figure. It has been computer simmed by billions of trials. It has been subjected to the law of large numbers. The 20% is the approximate expected value from continued play.
Even with this huge 20% edge, I still lost. The best blackjack card counters can only expect about a 2% return on each hand on average. An S&P Index fund will get you maybe 10% a year. 20% is a bigger edge with the added benefit of being able to play multiple hands.
I lost because of the variance, plain and simple. The 20% game operates on the principle that you lose a lot of times. The few times that you win, your wins more than make up for the losses. You never win 20% on each hand. It's only when you average the large number of losses with the rare gigantic wins that you arrive at the magic 20%. Unfortunately, I just never received any of the rare wins and that's why I came up short.
The variance on investing, sports betting, and blackjack is considerably less than this game but the variance still exists. Similar to how investing in a broad based market fund is a good bet, people still lose money. This principle of losing money to make money is something that people will never get. You just have to trust the averages.
I don't think that there is a game you refering to, but i agree with you :)
stoixima