The sports book numbers on big action games like the NBA playoffs and the Superbowl are pretty damn accurate. The lines are usually set right down the middle, splitting the action.Anyway, the line for the first game in the Lakers-Magic roundup is soundly set at -6 for the Lakers. This sounds just about right -- maybe with a slight over shading for the Lakers. I would have thought -5.5 would have been a more accurate line.
The average home court advantage is about 4 points. The other 1.5 points is probably the result of a slightly better Lakers team even though the Magic came out ahead in the regular season (the line now factors in the injured Nelson).
In my opinion, the last .5 point is the shading for the general public in favoring dynasty teams like the Lakers. This represents value for the Sharp players, but if you're unfortunately betting with the normal -110, aka 4.5% trading costs, then the extra half point just means it will be a break even proposition.
Each additional half point in NBA is usually worth about 4%. Having a 4% bonus from the general public doesn't add up to anything when you subtract out the 4.5% cost.
If you can find a bet paying even money +100 (like it is at Matchbook), then Orlando +6 is probably the sharp bet.
But hey, what do I know about basketball?
Looking back at my picks posted here, my record is currently 1 in 4 (if you count my American Idol pick -- which I do). The results of the NBA Finals Game 1 wasn't even close to what I'd expect. I don't put too much weight in each individual outcome or game though, because you can't draw anything too meaningful unless you have a larger sample size.