Can the analyst exploit successfully the repeated exaggerations of the general market? Experience suggest that a procedure somewhat like the following should turn out to be reasonably satisfactory:
- Select a diversified list of leading common stocks, e.g. those in the DJIA
- Determine an indicated "normal" value for this group by applying a suitable multiplier to average earnings. The multiplier might be equivalent to capitalizing the earnings at, say, twice the current interest rate on highest grade industrial bonds. The period for averaging earnings would ordinarily be seven to ten years, but exceptional conditions such as occurred in 1931-1933 might suggest a different method, e.g., basing the average on the period beginning in 1934, when operating in 1939 or later.
- Make composite purchased of the list when the shares can be bought at a substantial discount from normal value, say, at 2/3 such value. Or purchases may be made on a scale downwards, beginning say, at 80% of normal value.
- Sell out such purchases when a price is reached substantially above normal value, say 1/3 higher, or from 20% to 50% higher on a scale basis.
The NYT has an excellent story of a young poker grinder from the mom's perspective. My Son's Gamble. Typical fashion of moms to be overly worried, crazy, and to not understand the math.
The Wimbledon men's first-round match between Jurgen Melzer, an Austrian player ranked 30th in the world, and Wayne Odesnik, an American ranked 109th, is being reviewed by tennis officials after a sudden rush of money poured into online betting services and traditional London betting shops.
The bookies, however, said they had not found any evidence of match fixing, and blamed nothing more than sharp gamblers discovering the news of an injury for the run on the match. Odesnik, who had strained a thigh, lost in straight sets to Melzer in only Odesnik's second grass match of the year....
The Excalibur, one of the first casinos in Vegas to offer electronic poker tables, will be pulling all twelve of them from their poker room. (Forbes)Seems like every country has the same problem...."What we're seeing with the new plan is a move back to a more socialist approach to medicine by providing for the majority," said Pollard.
If successful, the sick will not be the only beneficiaries: the economy as a whole could undergo a fundamental change, and several business sectors--drug companies, medical equipment manufacturers and insurance companies--will all be affected....
The other main problem with the healthcare delivery system is that it is not always working in the interest of patients. Government funding for hospitals has gradually diminished, while at the same time the state imposes price control on many services. The result is that hospitals often over-prescribe drugs, or sell expensive patented drugs with a high mark-up. The hospital benefits financially from this because not only do they prescribe the drugs, they dispense them too. Hospitals in China make around 60% of their revenues from prescribing drugs, compared to the 10% to 20% that is typical in Western countries. In the draft guidelines, released last year, there were plans to separate the prescribing and dispensing of drugs. But in the final document these were only introduced as a pilot plan, suggesting that the government has decided not to tackle the hospital inefficiencies head on, but indirectly through improvements in the financing of treatment....
The website claims that the website is legal, because no money is ever deposited into the website. This is the most recent interview with the founder. Whoever being engaged in the business of betting or wagering knowingly uses a wire communication facility for the transmission in interstate or foreign commerce of bets or wagers or information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers on any sporting event or contest, or for the transmission of a wire communication which entitles the recipient to receive money or credit as a result of bets or wagers, or for information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.
The big take home for 2009 is the death of free markets. We weren't truly free markets to begin with, but government spending will be the biggest game in 2009. Our markets are going to start looking like the "Chinese Markets" with its government involvement. I can't say with absolute certainty what the next administration will focus it's capital on, but I feel confident in saying they will spend/spend/spend because we are fighting a Depression....
This [Social Security funds] amounts to funding your IRA by filling a cookie jar with IOUs from yourself. The stream of revenue is real, but the IOUs are at best only a moral promise to keep paying benefits, which arguably will still exist after the trust fund runs out.
FEARS ARE WARRANTED
However, it's impossible to turn the estimates into good news even with the lowest plausible projections of cost escalation. If anything, the trustees' estimates look too optimistic, as they traditionally have been. Raising the age of eligibility seems even more of a nonstarter for Medicare than for Social Security.
I'll be in Chicago for the weekend for a medical school graduation. The best investment in life is to marry a doctor.
The sports book numbers on big action games like the NBA playoffs and the Superbowl are pretty damn accurate. The lines are usually set right down the middle, splitting the action.
