I swear I was really going to post this earlier, before I passed out from going to Bar Preparation class. This was the first afternoon in two weeks where I got to slow down.
Continued from the previous post, markets are very accurate and the prediction markets were forecasting an American Idol win for Adam Lambert. It was about 50/50 after yesterday's performance and then it went as high as 56% chance earlier today. The sports books even set the line for an Adam Lambert win.
As much as I'm a strong believer in markets, I know enough to know that sophisticated types can beat the market. Dialidol, a speed dialing program that also does statistical sampling, showed a slight lead for Kris Allen. I check the Dialidol predictions regularly, because it's one of those rare indicators that is more accurate than the markets. The results were too close to draw anything significant, but Dialidol results were enough for me to know Kris Allen was a good bet. Remember the lines were set for 50/50 and in some cases for an Adam Lambert win.
If you can devise a more accurate measurement than the market and nobody knows about it, then you can make excess returns.
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