Some economists are seeing signs of a recovery

By Philip K. on April 6, 2009 8:43 PM | 0 Comments
Recovery hopes begin to blossom
A growing number of economists say they see signs that the battered U.S. economy could start to recover as soon as this summer.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Unemployment at a 25-year high. Housing prices continuing to fall. Corporate titans such as General Motors on the brink of bankruptcy. There's no lack of bad economic news.
And yet, amid the gloom, there are a growing number of economists that see a recovery on the horizon -- perhaps even a strong rebound.
They say that a number of indicators appear to have bottomed out in recent months. Job losses may have peaked in January. Home sales are starting to pick up. Stocks are enjoying a strong rally.
And because the economy has experienced such a steep decline in the current downturn, some economists are hopeful the recovery ahead will be much stronger than the anemic gains that came about after the end of the previous two recessions.
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I disagree with these economists.  Everything is relative.  It's true that the the rate at which we're bleeding has decreased as shown by last month's ISM numbers.  All that means is that we're not bleeding as much, meaning everything is sideways.  Our growth is still negative.  It's just that things aren't sucking as much, so people are taking that as a good sign.  In bad markets, things not sucking as much is good news.

The direction it goes from there is anybody's guess.  Nobody really knows, especially not these "experts".  All else equal, the only thing that can be said for the next few months is that the economy might be bleeding less and our rate of decline (hopefully) is getting smaller.  

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