Currently the line is set for +7.5 for Michigan in the big dance against North Carolina. A few years back, at least a decade ago, there was positive EV in betting on big home dogs. (Michigan is clearly the home team, because of the venue being in Detroit.)
This home dog advantage has been generally absorbed into the market price nd blindly betting home dogs do not appear to be profitable. In fact, it will probably end up costing you money.
There is a however. I don't handicap any sports whatsoever and I have not run any regressional analysis on NCAA sports. My gut just says to take Michigan, because of the big home dog and the highly emotional home crowd.
Fezzik, quite possibly the most profitable and the most controversial sports bettor in modern times is leaning towards Michigan at +8. Currently Bodog is offering Michigan at +8, -115. There's no proof and no edge, and this is probably a break even gamble, but I'd take the Michigan +8 at Bodog.
was the presidential prediction absorbed into the market price too?
Nah. Otherwise I wouldn't have made that bet and Barack Obama wouldn't have paid for our Hawaiian dinner.
The odds of an Obama win when I made that bet was like 95% and the odds I was able to get made an assumption of 90%.
I mean, did the market absorb the fact that obama picked UNC to win the tournament? how much was that worth?
Doubt it was worth much. Might actually cut against against UNC. Might be a bandwagon of people betting on UNC (Obama's team) driving the line higher than it should. Probably non-existent effect.